Unprecedented Pilot Wages In Peril: Is The Golden Era Already Over? JetBlue Cockpit Crew Think So
Pilots have been seeing record wages in new deals at the major carriers, in the face of paying too many to retire at the depths of Covid while not adding more to the pipeline, a recovery in air travel, and the time and cost to introduce new pilots as a result of government regulation lobbied for by the big pilot union ALPA. The tide may be about to turn.
- Following the 2009 Colgan Air crash, ALPA successfully got Congress to enact fare more time-consuming and costly training rules.
- This is known as the 1,500 hour rule – flying time required to pilot for a part 121 carrier – even though the pilots of the Colgan Air flight had more than this.
- These aren’t structured training hours. Anything will work – it’s mostly touch and go clear air takeoffs and landings from the same airports, over and over, rather than mirroring the experience of commercial operations although even time in hot air balloon counts (the hot air balloon can even be tethered).
- At the same time, new fatigue rules were introduced which can be helpful and which did address issues at play in the Colgan Air crash.
When American Airlines paused pilot hiring in June, it joined Delta, United, and Southwest who had all slowed or stopped pilot hiring completely. That took pressure off of regional airlines, where the pilot shortage had been most acute – major airlines could hire pilots at top wages, but they were hiring away from smaller carriers.
Now, though, airlines have had too much capacity as one after another reported during their earnings calls. Everyone grew faster than passenger demand and that’s without even a recession. And that’s without even the expected level of new aircraft deliveries. Boeing’s problems and inability to deliver aircraft was surprisingly merciful for airlines seeing their profit margins squeezed by competitive airfares.
Ultra low cost carriers like Spirit and Frontier in particular have struggled, in part because they’re no longer so ultra low cost with wages rising since the pandemic. United CEO Scott Kirby even tells a story where Spirit doesn’t make it after the Biden administration blocked their lifeline of a JetBlue acquisition.
Without the same pilot shortage pilot wages won’t keep rising. Will they fall? Enilria reports that many JetBlue pilots certainly think so, amidst the carrier’s troubles, offering on message boards:
• “(pay) concessions are coming”
• “(concessions) are inevitable”
• “it’s just a matter of when; days…months”
• “a bankruptcy judge will do it (if we don’t)”
• “hold off on big financial moves”
JetBlue has an open pilot contract and is struggling compared to peers in the industry. They aren’t in a position to push up costs. But it’s not just JetBlue that may be looking to hold the line on wages.
Pilot forums for other carriers, including American, have been seeing discussions of carriers more strictly enforcing minor rules that in the past might have seen employees given a pass or mere reprimand. Senior pilots, especially, need to be careful to adhere to airline rules because moving them off payroll has the greatest benefit to the bottom line as they’re most highly paid.
Sun Country reported that a single pilot made $750,000 at the top end. Meanwhile at the major carriers over $500,000 is common.
But receding demand could be accelerated by an economic downturn. And in the future the need for pilots may be halved as AI improves, and AI co-pilots are safer than human ones. At that point the union call for two pilots in every cockpit (they used to call for 3 and 4) will be anachronistic – pounding fists in the air against the tide of safety. In the long-term it won’t be nearly as lucrative a career.
But short-term risks are the same reason why it may make sense to grab deals now, especially as economic grounds shifts and balance sheets weaken at some airlines. For instance, while American’s flight attendants union probably got the most economic value it could in its new tentative agreement there are real arguments that the union prioritized the wrong things for its members yet voting down a contract could put them in a spot of renegotiating in a less favorable environment. American does not expect to make any money this quarter.
American’s mechanics got a record new 5 year contract ratified right as the pandemic started. A few months later in negotiations and they wouldn’t have gotten that same deal, and conditions for this next one may not be as favorable.
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